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Champion Hurdle 2010 Preview

This looks like one of the most open Champion Hurdles in years with 9 horses priced 12/1 or below.
Go Native sets the standard having won last season’s Supreme Novices and bagged both the Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdles. He is on course to win a £1 million bonus from WBX if he wins this race and based on his form this season he is deserved favourite. Paul Carberry is back on board after Davy Condon rode him for his two grade 1 wins this season. It is imperative that he does not hit the front too early as he is prone to idle but if Carberry times his challenge right he could be the one.
Solwhit looked a doubtful runner a few days ago but now looks likely to line up. He won the Punchestown Champion Hurdle in May and the last 4 winners of that race to run in the Champion Hurdle the following March have all won. However he does appear to be better suited by softer ground. His one defeat this season came on good to soft when 3rd behind Go Native in the Fighting Fifth, his other 3 wins have come on soft or heavy. If he is fully fit and the ground is no faster than good to soft then he is a major player.
Punjabi, Celestial Halo and Binocular finished 1-2-3 last season but the form of last year’s race has not worked out at all well and they look vulnerable to one of last season’s novices. Of the three Celestial Halo might fare best as he loves the Cheltenham track, where his record reads 122 (1-2-3) and he is a better horse on faster ground and his two most recent defeats came on soft and soft to heavy.
Zaynar showed what a great battler he is when he won last season’s Triumph Hurdle on good to soft, when he had Starluck 7 lengths behind him in 4th. He won his first two starts this season. He strung out a good field in the Ascot Hurdle, beating Karabak by 6 lengths and then he was the very easy winner of the Relkeel Hurdle here at Cheltenham on his penultimate start, beating Cape Tribulation by 6 lengths. After that race he was joint favourite for this race but a shock defeat last time when going down by a length to Quwetwo (to whom he was giving 8lbs) in a 2M 2F Kelso hurdle on soft, has meant he is out to 10/1. His record over hurdles is 111112 (5-1-6), which improves to 111 (3-0-3) when just counting runs on good to soft or better ground. He’s won both his starts at Cheltenham and although a 5yo still looks to hold solid claims in this race.
Starluck won over course and distance first time out but I’m still not convinced he comes up the hill. The form of that win has not worked out at all with the 4 horses he beat all failing to win since. He has been narrowly beaten on his last two starts and there is a question mark over his attitude in a scrap. At the prices Zaynar looks better value than he does.
Khyber Kim carried 11-9 to win the Greatwood in November and then beat Celestial Halo by over 2 lengths in receipt of 4lbs in the Boylesports International Hurdle in December on soft ground. All 3 of his wins have come on soft and on this better ground he may struggle to confirm the form with Celestial Halo on level weights.
Medermit was deemed a bit unlucky not to win the Supreme Novices last year though Go Native looked to be idling in front and I thought was a worthy winner. He beat Punjabi by 4 lengths last time out in receipt of 4lbs but does have a bit to find with Khyber Kim who has beaten him on both their meeting this season, most recently in the Boylesports International Hurdle where Medermit finished over 5 lengths back on level weights.
Won In The Dark has appreciated the drop out of grade 1 company recently when winning his last 2 hurdles race but he looks correctly priced at 66/1 in this.
Since taking 9th in last season’s Triumph Hurdle Jumbo Rio has not finished outside the top 3 in 8 runs over hurdles and he was only beaten 4½ lengths by Solwhit in the Festival Hurdle, though he will be 3lbs worse off in this. It would be a major shock if he was good enough but at 80/1 there will be a few thinking he could be a good bet for a place.
Raise Your Heart winning would be one of the biggest upsets in Cheltenham history.

Conclusion

It looks very much like the novice/juvenile form of last season is better than the Champion Hurdle form. Go Native is the one they all have to beat and at 9/2 is not a bad bet however I prefer Zaynar, despite the fact he is a 5yo. He relishes the Cheltenham track and will be well suited by the sound surface. If you were to forgive one below par performance (which may in time not look so bad if Quwetwo lives up to his trainer’s expectations) then 10/1 looks a juicy each way price.

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