Racecaller
Imperial Cup 10 Year Trends
Paddy Power Imperial Cup is a 2M ½F listed handicap hurdle run at Sandown on the Saturday (13th March) before Cheltenham, entries for the race came out today. Previous sponsors of the race, Sunderlands, offered a £75K bonus to any winner who went on to win at the Festival the following week and it’s good to see that current sponsors, Paddy Power, have continued the offer, recently achieved by Gaspara in 2007.
Below we take a look at the past 10 runnings to attempt to find some pointers:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 2-1-9
5yo: 4-7-47
6yo: 2-9-61
7yo: 1-9-43
8yo: 0-3-19
9yo: 1-1-11
10yo+: 0-0-5
Younger horses have fared better in recent years, especially 4yos who have gained 2 wins and a place from 7 runners in the last 3 renewals.
Horses aged 4 to 6: 8-17-117
Horses aged 7 or older: 2-13-78
8 of the last 9 winners were aged 4 to 6
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 4-17-92
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 6-13-103
No majorly significant trend with regard to weights with 6 of the last 10 winners carrying 10-5 or less and the other 4 carrying 10-12 or more.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 131 or higher: 2-8-54
Horses rated 121 to 130: 3-15-89
Horses rated 120 or lower: 5-7-48
Horses officially rated 120 or lower have won 5 of the last 10 but accounted for less than 25% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start
8 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 starts
8 of 10 winners had their last run between 21 and 55 days ago
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR on 1 of their last 2 starts
9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 9 times over hurdles
8 of 10 winners had run in no more than 2 handicap hurdles (8 of last 9)
9 of 10 winners had won no more than twice over hurdles (exception had won 3 non-handicap hurdles)
7 of 10 winners were novice hurdlers
10 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 5 hurdles since August
Other Races
Previous year’s winner (Dave’s Dream): 9 (0-0-1)
Ascot Betfair Handicap Hurdle winner (Beshabar):1 (1-0-1)
3 of 10 winners had won a Taunton Novice Hurdle that season
Trainers
David Pipe (2-2-6) has carried on the great tradition his father Martin (3-4-19), he has trained the winner in ‘07 and ‘08 and his two runners last year finished 2nd and 4th.
Nicky Henderson (1-1-12) won the race last year with Dave’s Dream but had not done well in the race prior to that.
Henrietta Knight (0-2-3), Lucy Wadham (0-2-7), Philip Hobbs (0-2-9) and Gary Moore (0-2-11) have all had 2 placed runners in the past 10 runnings.
Irish trainers (1-4-12) have seen 5 of their 12 representatives make the frame. Arthur Moore (0-1-3) trained the winner in ’99 and had the runner-up in 2000.
Price
5 of 10 winners were sent off favourite
The longest priced winner in the past 10 years has been 16/1 and favourites (5-1-10) have done particularly well, winning 5 of the last 8 renewals, (level stakes profit of 9.33).
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 to 6 (especially 4yos)
· Officially rated 120 or lower
· Finished in the first 3 last time out
· Posted highest RPR in winning on 1 of last 2 outings
· Run 3 to 9 times over hurdles & in no more than 2 handicap hurdles
· Won no more than twice over hurdles
· Novice hurdler
· Trained by David Pipe or in Ireland
· Sent off favourite
