Racecaller
County Hurdle 10 Year Trends
The Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle is a grade 3 handicap run over 2m 1f. It is now the second race on day 4 and is always a wide open affair but generally it goes to a horse prominent in the betting who has been in good form lately.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age(Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 6-6-55
6yo: 1-7-77
7yo: 1-10-56
8yo: 1-4-38
9yo: 1-2-18
10yo+: 0-1-13
6 of 10 winners were aged 5
5 year olds have a super record in the race. From approximately 21.4% of the runners they have won 6 of 10 (including the last 2) and gained 30% of the places.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses allotted 10-10 or more: 6-8-86
Horses allotted 10-9 or less: 4-22-171
Horses carrying 10-10 or more have won 6 of the last 10 from approximately 33.5% of the runners.
It is worth noting that 5 of the 6 horses to win carrying 10-10+ had finished in the first 3 in a class 1 handicap hurdle or a grade 2 hurdle (exception had won a class 2 handicap hurdle).
Official Ratings
Horses rated 136 or higher: 3-9-94
Horses rated 128 to 135: 7-16-131
Horses rated 127 or lower: 0-5-32
Horses officially rated 128 to 135 have won the last 5 renewals and accounted for 14 of 20 places in the last 5 years.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had had a run since February
10 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season
9 of 10 winners were first or second season hurdlers
8 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 5 handicap hurdles
9 of 10 winners had contested a handicap hurdle worth at least 16K that season
8 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher hurdle (two exceptions had finished 3rd in Pierse Hurdle and Totesport Trophy)
2 of 10 winners had previously run at the Festival, both unplaced (in Fred Winter and Neptune)
Other Races
Previous season’s winner (American Trilogy): 000 (0-0-3)
Totesport Trophy winner (Get Me Out Of Here): 2010 (1-1-4)
MCR Hurdle winner (Puyol): 0 (0-0-1)
Gerry Fielden winner (Fairyland): 80 (0-0-2)
Ladbrokes Greatwood H’cap Hurdle at Newbury winner: 21 (1-1-2)
BOG at Betinternet Handicap Hurdle winner (Tasheba): 160 (1-0-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Totesport Trophy last time out, finishing 2183
2 of 10 winners ran in the MCR Hurdle, finishing 53
2 of 10 winners ran in the Gerry Fielden, finishing 52
2 of 10 winners ran in the William Hill Listed Hurdle at Sandown, finishing 51
2 of 10 winners ran in the Paddy Fitzpatrick Memorial Hurde at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival, finsihing 12
The 3 Irish-trained winners had finished in the first 3 in either the Totesport Trophy or MCR Hurdle.
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-2-15) has trained 3 of the last 6 winners of this race.
Philip Hobbs (1-4-16), and Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-5) have each trained the winner and found a placed runner in the past 10 runnings.
The first 3 home in 2009 were Nicholls-O’Neill-Hobbs.
Nicky Henderson (0-3-17) has seen 3 of his 17 runners make the frame.
Irish-trained runners (3-6-53) have won the 2 of the last 3 runnings of this race.
Irish trainers who have won the race recently include Tony Mullins (1-0-1), Tom Hogan (1-0-2) and Jessica Harrington (1-0-3).
Willie Mullins (0-1-4) has only seen one of his horses get placed but all 4 finished in the first 8 while Tony Martin’s (0-1-1) solitary runner in this race finished 2nd.
Price
7 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting.
There have been a few shocks in recent years with Silver Jaro at 50/1 and American World at 20/1 winning the last 2 renewals.
Favourites (3-2-12) have a decent record in the race having won 3 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 2.00.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 5
• Carrying 10-10+
• Officially rated 128 to 135
• Finished in the first 3 last time out in last 45 days
• First or second season hurdlers
• Run in 1 to 5 handicap hurdles
• Run at least 3 times this season & run in a h’cap hurdle worth 16K+
• Won a class 3 or higher hurdle
• Trained by Paul Nicholls or in Ireland
• From first 4 in the betting
