Racecaller
Craven Stakes: 10 Year Trends
The Group 3 Racing Post breezeupbonus.com Craven Stakes takes place at Newmarket on Thursday 15th April. It is run over the Rowley Mile, the same course and distance the 2000 Guineas will be run over in early May. The last horse to do the double was Haafhd in 2004.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age
Race for 3yos
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season
10 of 10 winners had won a race as a 2yo
6 of 10 winners won first time out as a 2yo (4 exceptions were placed first time out and won second start)
6 of 10 winners (5 of last 6) had won at Newmarket
8 of 10 winners had won over 7F+
8 of 10 winners had run in a group race as a 2yo (3 won, 3 placed), both exceptions were unbeaten
7 of 10 winners (6 of last 7) ran at Newmarket on their previous start
10 of 10 winners were born no later than 11th April
Other Races
Richmond Stakes winner (Dick Turpin): 7 (0-0-1)
Acomb Stakes winner (Elusive Pimpernel): 2 (0-1-1)
Autumn Stakes winner (Morana): 35 (0-1-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst last time out, finishing 8375
2 of 10 winners ran in the Tattersalls Stakes last time out, finishing 32
2 of 10 winners ran in the Champagne Stakes, finishing 33
2000 Guineas
9 of 10 winners of the Craven ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 609716002 (1-1-9)
Other than Haafhd’s win in 2004 and Delgator finishing 2nd in 2009, the Craven winner has disappointed in the 2000 Guineas.
Trainers
Richard Hannon (3-2-9) has saddled 3 winners and 2 placed finishers from 9 runners in the past decade.
Michael Stoute (2-2-8) and Barry Hills (2-1-6) have both won the race twice in the last 10 years.
Brian Meehan (1-0-2) trained Delegator to win the race last year.
Price
8 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
The longest priced winner in the past 10 years has been 12/1.
Favourites (3-3-11) have won 3 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 2.83.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Having first run of the season
• Won a race over 7F+ as a 2yo
• Won or placed on first start as a 2yo
• Contested a group race or unbeaten
• Ran at Newmarket last time out
• Ran in the Dewhurst or Tattersalls Stakes last time out
• Born before 12/04/08
• Trained by Richard Hannon, Barry Hills or Michael Stoute
• Priced 12/1 or below
