Racecaller
Topham Chase 10 Year Trends
The John Smith’s Topham Chase takes place at Aintree on Friday 9th April. It is a 2M 5½F listed handicap chase run over the Grand National fences. Close to 30 runners line up in this race each year, so it is usually a fine spectacle and a super prelude to the Grand National on the following day.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-0-7
6yo: 0-2-14
7yo: 1-3-25
8yo: 1-7-53
9yo: 4-6-60
10yo: 3-6-63
11yo+: 0-6-57
Horses aged 5 to 8: 3-12-99
Horses aged 9 or 10: 7-12-123
Horses aged 11 or older: 0-6-57
Horses aged 9 or 10 have filled 8 of the 12 places in the past 3 renewals.
Since 1983 none of the 87 runners aged 11+ have managed to win this race.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-6 or more: 4-17-141
Horses carrying 10-5 or less: 6-13-138
6 of the last 7 winners carried 10-6 or less
Top Weights: 0-1-11 (0B03F00BF00)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 142 to 155: 0-0-19
Horses rated 124 to 141: 8-20-161
Horses rated 110 to 123: 2-10-99
No horses rated above 141 has made the places in this race in the past 10 years.
Horses officially rated 123 to 141 have filled 19 of the 20 places in the past 5 years.
Horses racing from out of the handicap: 3-7-82
3 of the last 6 winners were racing from 8 or more pounds out of the handicap. The first 3 home in 2007 and 2009 were out of the handicap (all runners ran off their correct marks in 2008).
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out (both exceptions ran in Kim Muir last time)
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 35 days
10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times since August
9 of 10 winners had won 0 or 1 chase that season
8 of 10 winners were 3rd or 4th season chasers
9 of 10 winners had run in 10 or more handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher chase worth 9K+
7 of 10 (last 5) had contested a graded chase
5 of last 6 winners had raced over the National fences (3 of those 5 had finished in first 4)
Other Races
Previous season’s winner (Irish Raptor): UF6PF (0-0-5)
Horses placed the previous year: 2-1-9 (F60P49171)
Kim Muir winner (Ballabriggs): 0 (0-0-1)
Betfair Trophy winner (The Sawyer): F (0-0-1)
Grimthorpe Chase winner (Wogan): 0 (0-0-1)
6 of 10 winners had contested the Byrne Plate that season or a previous season (4 of 6 finished in first 4 in it)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Kim Muir or Byrne Plate last time out
Racing Tactics
9 of 10 winners raced prominently throughout the race
It appears to be key that you have a runner who likes to be close to the leaders as 29 of the last 30 winners raced prominently.
Trainers
Irish trained runners (2-6-47) have won 2 of the last 10 runnings though much of that is down to Willie Mullins (1-2-4) who has seen all four of his runners make the first 5. Charlie Swan (0-2-4) has seen 3 of his 4 runners make the first 6 (other unseated).
Peter Bowen (1-2-9), Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-2-11), Philip Hobbs (1-1-7), Nicky Henderson (1-1-12), Paul Nicholls (1-1-22) and Jonjo O’Neill (1-0-5) have all won this race in the past 10 years.
Howard Johnson (0-4-11) has seen 4 of his 11 runners make the frame.
Price
7 of 10 winners were sent off between 7/1 and 16/1
No strong trends on the prices with 3 of the last 6 winners going off 25/1 or bigger.
Favourites (1-4-13) have won just 1 of the last 10, showing a level stakes loss of 6.00.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 10 or younger (especially 9 or 10yos)
• Carrying 10-6 or less
• Officially rated 123 to 141
• Do not discount horses running from out of the handicap
• Finished in first 4 last time out or ran in the Kim Muir or Byrne Plate
• Ran in past 35 day
• Run 4 to 8 times since August and won no more than once
• Won over 2M 4F+
• Run in 10 or more handicap chases
• Contested a graded chase
• Previously run over the National fences
• Placed in the race last year
• Trained by W Mullins, C Swan, P Bowen or H Johnson
