Tanya Stevenson
Tanya's Blog - Note La Tour as one to follow
The Racing Post National Hunt Ten-to-follow came through my letterbox while I was at Newmarket this weekend. It certainly kept me occupied yesterday while I had the NFL on and I will be scouring through the form once more this evening as my list is a bit lopsided at present: nine chasers and one hurdler – oops!
Standing in the betting ring on Saturday listening to Emma’s interview with Nicky Henderson and David Pipe, people around me were wondering why I had a ‘Cheshire Cat grin’ for no apparent reason. Those in the betting ring couldn’t hear my talkback or the fact that David Pipe had said NOTUS DE LA TOUR was his horse to follow for the season!
I will explained to those relatively new to the blob that Notus is part-owned by someone very close to me, and could have needed resuscitating from shock at about 3.45pm on Saturday! Notus is expected to go novice chasing and is a banker in the ten-to-follow list.
I’m still trying to get my head round the gamble on Keys in the Cesarewitch, from about 3.30 there was literally nothing backed against him with every bookmaker in the country having a lopsided book even if some do hedge on the exchanges. Prior to the off it wasn’t an enviable position. Yet then we were treated to a spectacular and genius ride by Frankie Dettori aboard Never Can Tell! Don’t think he used the whip too much.
The furore of the whip is reaching a peak as the new regulations and guidelines start today. A contentious issue and I await to see if the Channel 4 Racing email inbox fills with a continued wide cross section of opinions.
Back to Newmarket on Saturday and the supposed Classic Trials gave us a huge nudge to hold all bets on next year’s QIPCO 2000 Guineas. Dabirsim might not be coming across the Channel and might not stay; Born To Sea is favourite on what his sire achieved not what he has done; and Harbour Watch has suffered a setback so steering clear of him would be advisable.
After Parish Hall won the Dewhurst, you’d have thought the front three would have shortened instead they remained the same and since Saturday Harbour Watch has lengthened. Power is probably the best option on Saturday’s running. I walked the course on Friday and even to my untrained wellies the ground was fast and even faster near the stand side rail. Then you’re left with Top Offer, Parish Hall and my fancy Akeed Mofeed. But as has been pointed out perhaps we haven’t even seen the winner of the Guineas yet.
Tweed suits and various colours of cord trousers made their seasonal debut at Newmarket on Saturday and they should be spot on now for Cheltenham this week. It was great to see them, but it seems the mustard cords have been given the elbow in favour of a plum colour, the younger generation don’t want to stand out so much.
The NFL was brilliant again this week but I won’t ramble on too much about it as I know it is my guilty pleasure not yours. Philadelphia deserved to meet defeat at the hands of the Buffalo Bills and their offense was just incompetent! Four interceptions are just unforgivable. The Green Bay Packers just roll on, this time fending off the Atlanta Falcons, and the New Orleans Saints quietly go about their business, their only loss coming at the hands of Green Bay! Finally on such a sad day for the Oakland Raiders with the passing of their legendary owner Al Davies, the team managed a win against Houston.
Back to racing and three Flat meetings to whip up a storm, Salisbury, Yarmouth and Windsor. About 30 years ago I always use to cheer on horses carrying the Oppenheimer colours, so distinctive and so successful; it was a good way of winning a tipping competition against Grandma. Not so evident these days but still worth following, AMELIA MAY carries them in Windsor’s 5.40. I remember backing her dam Rebecca Sharp at Ascot when she won the Coronation Stakes at 25-1. Amelia May’s first three runs have been adequate, not great and now we see her in a handicap for the first time. She is probably much better than the first three runs suggest so I’m siding with her.
My other pick today is DRIFT AND DREAM in Yarmouth’s 3.15. She wasn’t beaten far in a really competitive Doncaster handicap during the St Leger meeting over five furlongs. The move up to six furlongs is a bold one but she has only had 12 career runs it could spark a return to the winner's enclosure.
POINTERS
Mark Johnston has had four winners from his last nine runners and a second and a third
Richard Hughes and Richard Hannon have teamed up for five winners from their last 12 runners
Kieren Fallon has a 33% strike rate with his rides at Salisbury this season with five winners from his last 15 rides
Saeed Bin Suroor has won Windsor’s 2.00 twice from four runners
Richard Hannon has won Windsor’s 3.35 three times in the last 10 years
Kirsty Milczarek and Luca Cumani have had three winners from their last six runners at Yarmouth
