Racecaller
Lincoln Handicap 10 Year Trends
The William Hill Lincoln Handicap, which will be run at Doncaster on Saturday 27th March, is the first big handicap of the British flat season. It’s a race steeped in history and is always a lively betting contest.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 5-9-80
5yo: 3-8-72
6yo: 2-7-47
7yo: 0-3-21
8yo+: 0-3-11
4yo have won 5 of the last 7 runnings, including the last 2.
4 to 6 years old have won the last 10 however they have represented approximately 86% of the runners.
There has only been one winner aged above 6 in the past 20 years.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 9-1 or more: 1-10-55
Horses carrying 8-9 to 9-0: 9-12-107
Horses carrying 8-8 or less: 0-8-69
9 of 10 winners carried between 8-9 and 9-0 and so are heavily favoured.
Horses running with a penalty (2-7-15) have a very good record with 9 of 15 making the frame.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 99 or higher: 1-11-55
Horses rated 90 to 98: 8-16-132
Horses rated 89 or lower: 1-3-44
8 of 10 winners (including the last 5) were officially rated 90 to 98.
Recent/Past Form
5 of 10 winners won last time out
9 of 10 winners posted their career highest RPR on one of their last two starts (7 of 10 last time out)
8 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 3 starts
10 of 10 winners won over 1M+ (last 4 had won over 1M 2F)
7 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season (3 exceptions all finished in first 3 last time out)
7 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or higher (3 exceptions won a class 3 last time out and were running in a class 2 for first time)
9 of 10 winners had won a race worth 10K+ (exception had won a race worth 7K and not run in a more valuable contest)
0 of 10 winners had previously won at the track
Other Races
Previous season’s winner (Expresso Star): 0090 (0-0-4)
Wolverhampton Lincoln Trial (Vitznau): 03 (0-1-2)
bet365 Best Odds Handicap winner (Secrecy): 0140 (1-1-4)
3 of 10 winners ran in the bet365 Best Odds Handicap at Newmarket the previous season, finishing 331
Record of horses that finished in the first 3 in the previous season’s bet365 Best Odds Handicap at Newmarket to run in this is 3 wins and 4 places from 12 runners. Benandonner (2nd in 2009) is the only horse to finish in the first 3 in the race to hold an entry in this year’s Lincoln
6 of 10 winners had their last turf run at Newmarket the previous October/November
Trainers
Mark Tompkins (2-1-7) and Paul Cole (2-0-7) have both won the race twice in the past 10 years but While Tompkins has won it as recently as 2008, Paul Cole has not saddled a runner in the race since 2003.
John Quinn (1-1-6) trained Blythe Knight to win the race in 2006 and finish 2nd in 2008
Barry Hills (1-1-7) trained the winner in 2003 and his two runners last year finished 2nd and 5th. John Gosden (1-0-4) trained the winner last year.
Richard Fahey (0-3-10) has yet to train the winner of the race but he has had 3 placed efforts in the last 10 runnings. David Barron (0-2-3) has seen 2 of his 3 runners make the frame.
Draw (exclude 06 and 07 when race not run at Doncaster)
Horses draw 1 to 13: 7-18-104
Horses drawn 14 or higher: 1-6-77
Horses drawn 13 or below are favoured having won 7 of the last 8 renewals run at Doncaster.
The Spring Mile run earlier on the Lincoln day card will give a good indication of where best to be drawn. Last year the first 4 in the Spring Mile were drawn 9-2-3-20 and the first 4 in the Lincoln were drawn 9-11-2-20.
7 of the last 8 winners (at Doncaster) were drawn within 6 stalls of the Spring Mile winner.
Price
7 of 10 winners were priced 10/1 or below.
There have been a few shocks in the past decade but 7 of the last 10 runnings have gone to horses in the first 5 in the betting.
Favourites (4-1-11) have gained 4 wins in the past decade, giving a level stakes profit of 9.83.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 4 to 6
• Carrying 8-9 to 9-0 (also carrying a penalty is a positive)
• Officially rated 90 to 100
• Won one of last three races
• Posted their highest RPR in last two runs
• Won over 1M+
• Previously won a class 2 or higher (or won a class 3 last time out)
• Won a race worth 10K+
• Finished in the first 3 in the bet365 Best Odds Handicap
• Drawn 1-13 (drawn close to Spring Mile winner)
• Priced 10/1 or below (favourite especially)
• Trained by Mark Tompkins, Paul Cole or David Barron
