Tanya Stevenson
Captain’s Blog March 19
What I day we had yesterday with Copper Bleu 12/1 Albertas Run 18/1 and Great Endeavour 22/1 all obliging for us here on the Blog. Lets face it we are not going to better that this side of the Grim Reapers arrival at my front door, but at least it puts us in profit for the Festival and to be honest I aim to keep it that way and will not be going mad today.
9.30am and the show is about to start on the Final day of the Festival. Back in 5 minutes.
Up and running now and the guys on course will be having a close look at the Gold Cup shortly. My view on the race is that it is not one to have a bet in and is simply one to sit back and enjoy. For the record I think that Kauto Star will win. For me on good ground he will have too much speed for Denman who would be better suited to a slog in more testing ground. Many pundits are looking for sleepers or as some rather distastefully say floaters. I am not even trying to find one to be honest, yes Imperial Commander should run well as should Cooldine, but if they run to their best and even tag on another 10 percent to their efforts they will not be good enough. Kauto star should win and I would not be surprised if Kauto is shorter than the 4/6 that is offered by Sky bet come 3.20pm this afternoon.
There are plenty of other competitive races to have a go at today, but as ever winner finding is going to be tough. I am not sure if I have the energy to wade my way through them all. Four days in the booth for 12 hours a day has taken its toll and I will sure be glad of a day off tomorrow, but I am prepared to turn my attentions to the Triumph Hurdle for a moment and here are my thoughts on the leading contenders.
Alaivan – This fellow was rated 110 on the flat and has won two of his three races over hurdles and when he was beaten he pulled too hard. He was very impressive last time at Fairyhouse and providing he drops his head and settles he will take a load of beating.
Carlito Brigante - In contrast to Alaivan he was only rated 74 on the flat. He has however blossomed into a useful hurdler and defeated Alaivan at Leopardstown in December. His recent win over Ultimate at Musselburgh merely showed us his well being. It may seem ridiculous but I am not sure he is a stayer in the mould of A triumph winner, he is not bred to stay two miles and in a truly run race may just get caught out late on.
Advisor – He was rated 81 on the flat and looked a little quirky in that sphere. He has got his act together over hurdles lately winning at Newbury and Ascot. I have no doubt that Paul Nicholls has improved this guy, but his resolution will be tested to the max today.
Soldatino – He has only races once in this country and when he did won nicely at Kempton. He beat Ultimate more comfortably than Carlito Brigante had done at Musselburgh and he is open to more improvement having had only 4 runs in his career. Trained by Nicky Henderson and ridden by Barry Geraghty he is definitely a player.
Gilded Age – This 73 rated flat horse has a lot to find on the book but has been quietly progressive. His win last time was achieved in a fast time and a couple of winners have already come out of the race. He is an improver who could play a hand and boy could his trainer Alan King do with a winner at this years Festival.
In summary I like the favourite Alaivan but will be having a small saver on Gilded Age who I think could outrun his price.
We are playing out a feature on Kauto and Denman which gives me a chance to go and fill my flask up. Back in five minutes with today’s selections.
I spoke to my friend and colleague Paul Morrison this morning and he pointed out that Quel Esprit who fell on Tuesday at the Festival and is running again at 2.40 today did not just fall but got a real whack to the head as he got off the ground. If he was a boxer, or for that matter a jockey he would have been signed off for weeks and surely it is a big ask for this horse to run and win today.
I know we are all consumed with Kauto and Denman, but I have to admit I am getting nervous about the St Helens Vs Warrington Rugby League clash this evening, it should be a cracker. Come on you Saints!!
I will be back at 12.00 with my final Festival update
Today’s Selections
1.30 Cheltenham – Alaivan (4/1 Victor Chandler) Gilded Age (each way 40/1 Victor Chandler)
2.40 Cheltenham – Enterprise Park (each way 9/1 Sportingbet)
4.40 Cheltenham – Pause and Clause (each way 20/1 Victor Chandler)
5.15 Cheltenham – Your the Top (each way 8/1 Skybet)
The morning show is in full flow and we are about to have a close look at the County Hurdle. For me Secret Dancer is very interesting at a decent price, but the race looks impossible and I will be leaving it alone from a punting point of view.
Once again festival form has been the best form to follow this year. Horses that run well at the festival often do so again and whilst many may think this is about them handling the big day and other such myths it is surely a lot simpler than that. It is the ground, they get better ground at the Festival than they have had all winter and suddenly bounce back to the form the showed on similar ground at previous Festivals, Buena Vista and Binocular are but two examples of this. There are plenty more and with this theory in place I have decided to put up one more bet today in Pause and Clause in the 4.40 contest. He was third in the Coral Cup last year and has been running ok this year on terrible ground.
Thats it for the final day of Cheltenham. Enjoy your day.
