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Angus Mcnae

Captain’s Blog, March 17

Day 2 of the Festival is upon us and I hope that you had a winning start to the week yesterday. Here on the blog we managed to bag a winner at Southwell with Punching at 15/8 and our Antepost selection at 70/1 for the Champion Hurdle Khyber finished second which equates to a 12-1 winner of thereabouts, I hope you were on. Our other each way selection Oscar Whisky went the way of many each way selections by finishing fourth. All in all not a bad day and hopefully we can top up today.

Firstly my thoughts on yesterday for what they are worth. Dunguib was the banker of the meeting for many people but in a steadily run Supreme Novices he was turned over by Menorah and Get Me Out of Here. I do not want to take anything away from the first two home but for me Dunguib was the best horse in the race. His jockey gave the outside to nobody and as a consequence Dunguib saw plenty of daylight and was far too keen early in the race. By going wide he lost plenty of ground and in a slowly run race was far enough back when the taps were turned on. For me he should have won and would have done if Ruby Walsh had ridden him. Sorry if you Menorah fans are offended and in no way do I want to slate that horses performance because on the day he was the best, but on another day should they meet Dunguib will have too much speed for him.

Binocular was impressive in winning the Champion Hurdle and left many scratching their heads as to why he showed much improved form compared to his other runs this year. To my mind it is all to do with the ground. He wants the ground to be good or faster to show his best and it was certainly riding like that yesterday. When he was beaten in the Champuion Hurdle last year the time of the race was 4m 0-90 this year the time was 3m 53.8. The ground was quicker this year and much quicker than he has encountered either in the fighting fifth or the Christmas hurdle this season. When he was so impressive at Ascot and Aintree in 2008 the ground was on the quick side. Yes he may have had a physical problem this year but it was probably no fluke that he suddenly worked really well at home last wednesday when the gallops would have have ridden a fair bit faster than at any other time this season.

 

Just some thoughts for you from yesterday. Now time to move on to today.

The Queen Mother Champion Chase is the feature event and Mater Minded will be very tough to beat. You can look as hard and long as you like to find each way alternatives to the Master but if you can get even money that is fair enough for a win bet on Master Minded.

Th RSA Chase looks set to be dominated by Nicky Hederson who runs both Long Run and Punchestowns. Both have been impressive winners this season and Long Run in particular has looked to be a star in the making. The problem for me is that he has Sam Waley Cohen on board. Sam is a nice chap with a family who have had great success on the Racecourse. Sam is a fair Jockey but he is not Ruby Walsh and is not Barry Geraghty and if I am going to back a horse at a short price I want everything in my favour and I am afraid that I would prefer Geraghty on board so Long Run is not for me. I have nothing against Sam and wish him all the best but you have to call it as you see it. Long Run may well win but he may also make mistakes which he will not be able to afford against Punchestowns. The other point is the ground. Here is a list of the state of the ground every time this horse has won.

Very Soft
Soft
Very Soft
Very Soft
Holding
Very Soft
Very Soft
Holding
Good to Soft
Good to Soft.

He likes soft ground folks, and we do not know how he will handle the fast conditions out there today. Lets be honest the times yesterday suggest there is no soft out there and Long Run needs to prove he handles faster conditions on his biggest ever test.

For me quickish ground suits Punchestowns because he has plenty of speed and he is the one for the RSA chase in my opinion.

Right I am in the booth and our preview programme is up and running. I will be back at 12.00 with my update prior to the start of the action.

 
Today’s Selections

3.20 Cheltenham – Punchestowns (11/4 William Hill)

2.05 Cheltenham – Manyriverstocross (each way 16/1 William Hill)

4.40 Cheltenham – Stormy Weather (each way 16/1 Victor Chandler)

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